The latest quarterly report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has some market watchers seeing red. But the agency points out its market assessment is an early warning signal and not a sign of a housing bubble that is about to burst.

The report indicates there are signs of over-valuation in 11 of Canada’s 15 major markets. Toronto, Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina all come in as “code red” for strong indications of problematic conditions.

Among the factors CMHC monitors are price acceleration, job and income growth, and overbuilding. The agency says it wants to promote stability by advising buyers, lenders and builders when a market is out of sync with economic fundamentals.

Montreal showed a moderate risk of over-valuation due low growth in first time buyers, weak income growth and a glut of unsold condos.

Vancouver – by far Canada’s priciest market – along with Calgary and Edmonton came in with low risk factors. Changes in those markets are in line with the local economies.

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